Central bank decisions have been the focus of investors' attention in recent days. The Fed surprised participants with a bold rate cut of 50 basis points. The far-reaching sweeping move by the PBOC was unexpected. The measures were positively received by the stock markets. The ECB and SNB also eased their monetary policy in line with expectations.
The global economy appears to be cooling down and is now also affecting the service sector to some extent. The figures remain contradictory.
The USA is surprising on the upside and monetary easing continues to allow for a soft landing.
In Europe, economic concerns are weighing heavier.
The global bond markets have calmed down. The Fed's interest rate cut is leading to a normalization of the yield curve.
On the stock markets, the significant swings "downwards" were corrected surprisingly quickly. However, this recovery was not equally strong everywhere.
The US dollar could remain under pressure. In addition to the expectation of further interest rate cuts, rising debt in the US is also weighing on the greenback.
Gold rises to over USD 2,700 per ounce and reaches a new all-time high.

Global growth was robust in the first quarter and the European economy is gaining momentum. The recovery is also likely to continue for the rest of the year - supported by the looser monetary policy, among other things.
We expect global economic growth of 3% for 2024.
The fall in inflation since the coronavirus pandemic is generally welcomed, but has not yet reached the target value of 2% in most regions.
Nevertheless, the first central banks are easing their monetary policy framework and providing growth impetus.
Central banks remain data-dependent in their decisions.
Yields on government bonds in the most important markets are moving sideways.
The stock markets in the most important regions are behaving heterogeneously: new highs in the USA, setbacks in Europe. We remain cautiously constructive for the equity markets.
The US dollar has consolidated its gains since the beginning of the year, while the Swiss franc weakened briefly following the SNB's renewed interest rate cut.
The price of gold is currently trading in a range of USD 2,300 to 2,400 per ounce, and we remain positive in our assessment.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden are once again dueling for the presidency in the US. The robust US economy is experiencing a slight slowdown. Overall, economic output from industry is weak and is being boosted by the service sector. The BOJ raises key interest rates for the first time in 17 years, but otherwise remains supportive. The SNB lowers its key interest rate and leads the way among the larger central banks. The ECB, BOE and Fed wait with interest rate cuts. Yields on government bonds in the most important regions are consolidating at the upper end of the ranges that have existed since the beginning of the year. The stock markets in the most important regions have largely continued to perform very positively since the start of the year. The US dollar is well supported and the Swiss franc came under pressure following the latest inflation figures and the SNB's interest rate cut. Gold reached new highs and we are maintaining our positioning.

The pleasing growth of the global economy in the third quarter - especially in the USA - will be severely dampened in the fourth quarter, which is usually a seasonally strong quarter. The restrictive monetary policy is having an inhibiting effect.
The outlook for the second half of 2024 is brightening and is experiencing positive momentum, not least thanks to an expected looser monetary policy and "presidential cycle".
Some countries are likely to have already slipped into recession. However, this is mild in most of the countries affected.
The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB)
could open the round of interest rate cuts and cushion a possible downturn.
Yields on government bonds in the most important regions virtually collapsed after the Fed meeting. The announcement of three potential interest rate cuts took many by surprise.
The stock markets responded positively to Fed Chairman Powell's comments and falling interest rates and continued their rally.
Gold consolidates after reaching a new all-time high.

The economy in the USA is still surprisingly robust. The flip side is that inflationary pressures remain elevated. However, there are increasing signs of a slowdown. Loan arrears and bankruptcies are rising.
In the Eurozone there is a marked loss of momentum. The services sector is now also coming under pressure.
Central banks take such developments into account in setting their mone-tary policies. They have stepped back from a commitment to rapid rate rises and have shifted to “fine-tuning”. This might involve modest rate changes and substantial pauses when it comes to changing rates.
Yields on 10-year US government bonds have risen to 4.5%, reaching a 16-year high. Meanwhile, European and Swiss government bond yields have trended sideways.
Equity markets are unsettled and are currently trading around 5% below their highs for the year (depending on the region).
The US dollar is benefit-ing from the rise in US yields and looks set to make further gains. The Swiss franc is trending weaker.
Gold has lately been rather stable despite rising US real interest rates. Oil prices have risen, reaching a high for the year around $95 a barrel.

Most central banks are still raising interest rates while liquidity and the money supply are being cut back. At times, the stresses caused by monetary policy tightening is forcing some central banks to relax their policies temporarily. But the importance of such short-term countermeas-ures should not be overestimated.
Overall, tighter monetary policies are having an increasing impact on the consumer and the economy.
The fall in inflation rates is taking the pressure off from monetary authori-ties. The peak in the interest rate hike cycle is likely to be reached in the second half of the year.
Yields in the major government bond markets have been rather stable as of late. Volatility has fallen significantly.
Trends in stock markets are increasingly reminiscent of the Tech bubble of 1999/2000. We remain cautious in our positioning and neutrally weighted in the equity quota.
Currency markets have been broadly stable. The Swiss franc continues to be in demand.
Having risen earlier in the year, the gold price is now consolidating.

The troubled US regional banks and the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS unsettled market participants. The write-down of AT1 securities by CS led to a sharp decline in the price of the asset class.
It was only the loss of confidence that led to the distress of companies that were fundamentally soundly financed. Governments and central banks are endeavoring to restore confidence.
Negative effects on the still robust economy cannot be ruled out. Companies and consumers are threatening to become more cautious.
The monetary policy of the central banks is coming into even sharper focus.
Due to the uncertainties related to the U.S. banking sector, investors sought safe havens. These included the government bonds of the major economies, but also gold, which at times traded at over $2,000 per ounce.
The equity markets are proving resilient, but we remain cautious in our assessment and neutral in our equity allocation.
In FX markets, movements are relatively small despite stress in the financial system.

Central banks have been raising key interest rates to fight inflation and this will continue in the coming year. They will also reduce the size of their balance sheets.
We expect a dwindling growth momentum which will lead to recession in some countries. Ultimately, this will allow central banks to loosen monetary policy in a measured way in the second half of 2023.
Regarding the market outlook, one of the central questions is whether investor profit expectations for the coming year can be met or whether they will need to be revised downwards.
The inversion of the US yield curve points to a looming recession.
Equities have come under renewed pressure after central banks signal they have further tightening to do.
Regarding the market outlook, one of the central questions is whether investor profit expectations for the coming year can be met or whether they will need to be revised downwards.
The US dollar’s trend rise has come to a standstill and Gold has shown an impressive performance in recent weeks.

Central bank interest rate hikes will slow economic growth significantly in coming months.
While the world economy is still in decent shape, with labor markets robust, various sentiment indicators are becoming gloomier.
Russia’s territorial losses in eastern Ukraine increase the pressure on Vladimir Putin. Russia’s recently announced partial mobilization will undermine support within Russia for its war in Ukraine.
Sharp hikes in key interest rates and the process of central bank balance sheet reduction point to an economic slowdown. Central banks aim to bring current unacceptably high rates of inflation back to target levels around 2%.
Government bond yields continue to rise, and the US yield curve has become more inverted.
Equity markets are due for another reality check. Valuations have come down significantly, but earnings estimates for coming quarters are probably still too high.
The US dollar continues to trend higher. The euro, on the other hand, is suffering from the Eurozone’s multiple problems.
Gold has come under pressure due to higher yields and the strong US dollar.