Asset managers see great potential in Swiss blue chips in 2025
Independent asset managers in Switzerland can look back on a surprisingly good year on the stock market. They expect Donald Trump's policies to provide a major boost in 2025. However, they also see attractive investment opportunities in Switzerland - with relatively low risk.
More than two-thirds of independent asset managers in Switzerland expect the current economic situation to have a positive impact on their business. Aquila Asset Manager Index (AVI), which the Swiss Federal Aquila Group every three months in cooperation with finews.ch published.
After some Swiss blue chips bitterly disappointed in 2024, the EAMs surveyed see a lot of catch-up potential in the large-cap stocks next year, namely in the shares of the world's largest food manufacturer Nestlé, which has lost around 30 percent of its value in the past twelve months (cf. graphic below). However, the opportunities in other blue chips also appear to be greater than the risks next year.
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"We prefer selected quality stocks with solid balance sheets, attractive business models and stable dividends. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, we are also focusing on gold, Swiss equities and Switzerland as a booking location," said Raoul SchätzleManaging Partner of Family Partners Switzerland (FPS) in Zurich, opposite finews.ch.
Bleak prospects in Europe
The AVI Index summarizes various forecasts and assessments by independent asset managers in Switzerland. A total of 150 companies took part in the latest survey. The survey also revealed that 84% of the EAMs surveyed expect a strong stock market performance in the USA, which will be significantly better than in Europe.
"In Europe, political stalemates, especially in Germany, are putting the brakes on urgently needed economic stimulus packages and clouding the outlook. Planned US punitive tariffs harbor risks of a trade war with possible negative consequences for global growth," said Christoph SiegerPortfolio Manager at the Zurich-based Aquila AG, opposite finews.ch.
Just no Bitcoin
Overall, the survey participants are convinced that the second term of office of Donald Trump will strengthen the supremacy of the USA on the financial markets. However, 54 percent of the asset managers surveyed are staying away from Bitcoin (cf. graphic below).
Apparently, the risk of a price collapse seems too high for them after the cryptocurrency achieved record prices this year and surpassed the 100,000 dollar mark.
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"While we continue to see technology stocks as significant drivers of returns, careful stock selection is becoming increasingly important. And given the current valuations, targeted profit-taking is a good idea," said Christian Steigleder, also Managing Partner at FPS.
Hopeful Donald Trump
Independent asset managers remain positive about the performance of the Swiss Market Index (SMI) over the next twelve months; 62% (previous quarter: 61%) of those surveyed expect prices to continue to rise.
This is not the case with the S&P 500, where the euphoria triggered by US President Trump is clearly evident: 80 percent of EAMs now expect share prices to rise, compared with just 65 percent in the previous quarter (cf. graphic below).
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In contrast, expectations for Europe are cautious: 42% of survey participants still expect higher prices, compared with 50% three months ago.
In their asset allocation, the independent asset managers are still significantly overweight in equities on average (50.2 percent) and hold a relatively high share of 8.1 percent in alternative investments; gold and precious metals make up 7 percent of the portfolio, while liquidity amounts to 9.7 percent and the share of bonds comes to 25 percent (cf. graphic below).
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Conclusion: For 2025, many independent asset managers are focusing on broad diversification, quality equities with solid growth and investment-grade corporate bonds with short to medium maturities. Continued interest rate cuts should support the positive outlook, as Christoph Sieger from Aquila summarizes.
Disclaimer: Produced by Investment Center Aquila Ltd. Information and opinions contained in this document are gathered and derived from sources which we believe to be reliable. However, we can offer no under-taking, representation or guarantee, either expressly or implicitly, as to the reliability, completeness or correctness of these sources and the information pro-vided. All information is provided without any guarantees and without any explicit or tacit warranties. Information and opinions contained in this document are for information purposes only and shall not be construed as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to acquire or dispose of any investment instrument or to engage in any other trans action. Interested investors are strongly advised to consult with their Investment Adviser prior to taking any investment decision on the basis of this document in order to discuss and take into account their investment goals, financial situation, individual needs and constraints, risk profile and other information. We accept no liability for the accuracy, correctness and completeness of the information and opinions provided. To the extent permitted by law, we exclude all liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages, including loss of profit, arising from the published information.
The future of an independent asset manager depends not only on smart investment decisions, but also on well thought-out succession planning, writes Markus Angst in a guest article on finews.ch. Those who ignore this issue risk not only their own success, but also the trust of their clients. Read the full article at finews.ch.
Nicolas Peter looks back on a pleasing year: investors achieved impressive returns despite the weaker performance of the Swiss stock market. The US market in particular shone with a performance of 28%.
We remain optimistic for equities in 2025 - albeit with more volatility. The US market impresses with strong earnings growth, while the Swiss market scores with solid dividends. Gold remains an important portfolio component, supported by central bank purchases, falling interest rates and rising debt.
The Aquila Investments team is looking forward to an exciting new year!
#AquilaFocus #Aquila #Investments #Gold #ZPolicy #SMI #USMarket #Anvestment strategy #2025
President-elect Donald Trump can implement his policies without restriction with the support of both chambers, which can have an inflationary effect in extremis.
"America First" will have a positive impact on US growth. The international effects depend on the specific implementation of the measures, as well as the countermeasures - as the example of China shows.
Western central banks are expected to cut interest rates further by 2025 to support the economy, while the BOJ is likely to move further away from its zero interest rate policy.
Lower financing costs are also welcomed due to the high and rising national debt in some cases.
The bond markets have calmed down following the US presidential election. Investors are keeping a close eye on the development of government debt.
There was profit-taking on the US stock markets following the US election. In Europe, the markets have been under pressure since the end of September. We remain cautiously positive about further developments. Geopolitical risks and customs discussions could weigh on the stock markets.
The US dollar is trending firmer after the election, while the Swiss franc is showing relative strength, especially against the euro.
The long overdue technical correction in gold has taken place. We remain positive in our medium-term assessment.
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