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Asset managers want to invest less in sustainability in 2024
Fewer sustainability investments, but more investments in pharmaceutical companies and the healthcare sector. Artificial intelligence en masse, but shares instead of gold. These are some of the resolutions of independent asset managers in Switzerland for the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest AVI Index.
The major investment theme of recent years is increasingly losing its shine: around a third of independent asset managers believe that interest in sustainability is declining and will be overshadowed by other trends in the coming year. This is in stark contrast to the ongoing discussion surrounding climate change, which has received a lot of publicity due to the COP28 climate summit recently held in Dubai.
However, professional investors obviously see things differently. For them, questions about a possible recession, inflation and future interest rate trends dominate. In addition to the 30 percent of asset managers surveyed who described the sustainability trend as declining, 32 percent are of the opinion that the topic will remain stable but will not develop further (cf. graphic below).
(To enlarge, simply click on the graphic)
These assessments are based on the latest Aquila Asset Manager Index (AVI), which the Swiss Aquila Group every three months in cooperation with finews.ch is published. The index summarizes various forecasts and assessments of independent asset managers in Switzerland. In each case, 150 firms participate in the latest survey.
Highest value since mid-2021
Overall, the external asset managers (EAMs) surveyed are extremely positive; as many as 72% of survey participants expect the Swiss Market Index (SMI) to be higher in the first quarter of 2024. This is an above-average figure, which was last achieved in the second quarter of 2021. At that time, the most recent stock market boom was actually at its peak (cf. graphic below).
(To enlarge, simply click on the graphic)
In view of the optimistic expectations, it is also interesting to see which sectors the EAMs consider most undervalued. According to the latest survey, it is by far the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries, followed by the energy and commodities sector and, in third place, the technology and IT sector. In many cases, this goes hand in hand with the companies that have been "beaten up" the most on the stock market over the past two years (cf. graphic below).
(To enlarge, simply click on the graphic)
Independent asset managers are also sceptical about another megatrend this year - artificial intelligence (AI) in investing. Just under 20 percent of those surveyed believe that AI has little influence and that other factors are more important.
AI still needs more acceptance
Over 40 percent of participants recognize at least a "moderate" influence and could imagine that this "science" could become even more important (cf. graphic below).
(To enlarge, simply click on the graphic)
Equities rather than gold again
In three months (cf. graphic below), the independent asset managers see the Swiss Market Index (SMI) at a level of 11,217 (currently: 11,132).
(To enlarge, simply click on the graphic)
In the case of gold, the EAMs see an ounce price above the psychological USD 2,000 mark by the end of March 2024, namely USD 2,035 (currently: USD 2,039).
They estimate the yield on the 10-year US Treasury at 3.97% in three months (currently: 3.90%) and the euro-franc exchange rate at 0.9370 (currently: 0.9429). The latter is likely to be related to the economic weakness in Germany.
Disclaimer: Produced by Investment Center Aquila Ltd.
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