Asset managers want UBS in Switzerland
Rarely have expectations on the global financial markets changed as rapidly and radically as in the past two weeks. Against this backdrop, independent asset managers in Switzerland are seeking refuge in gold and hoping for a stable Swiss financial center with the last remaining major bank, UBS.
For the majority of independent asset managers in Switzerland, it would be a bad thing if UBS were to relocate its headquarters abroad. Almost 60 percent of those surveyed are of this opinion (cf. graphic below). This can be seen from the latest AVI-Index which the Swiss Aquila Group in cooperation with finews.ch on a quarterly basis.
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Accordingly, a clear majority is also of the opinion that the "new" UBS not is too large for Switzerland; 57 percent of the external asset managers (EAMs) surveyed are of this opinion (cf. graphic below). "In my opinion, it would make the most sense if UBS were split into three units: UBS Switzerland, UBS International and UBS USA. This would solve the too-big-to-fail issue, the risks would be manageable and geographically distributed," explained Marcel Chevroletfounder of the company Chevrolet Consulting in Reinach BL, opposite finews.ch.
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The AVI Index summarizes various forecasts and assessments by independent asset managers in Switzerland. A total of 150 companies took part in the latest survey. According to the latest survey, 60 percent of EAMs now expect a recession in the USA this year (cf. graphic below); this is due to the tariffs recently introduced by the Trump administration.
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"We expect increased volatility in the coming weeks due to tariffs, a heightened risk of recession and potentially rising US inflation figures, which should curb risk appetite for equities. However, we are taking advantage of this environment to selectively add to sold-off, high-quality technology stocks," said Christian SteiglederManaging Partner of Family Partners Switzerland (FPS) in Zurich, opposite finews.ch.
Overall, independent asset managers have massively reduced their expectations for the stock market - particularly with regard to the USA: only 31 percent of respondents still expect the US S&P 500 index to continue to rise, compared with 80 percent three months ago (cf. graphic below).
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"For investors with a long-term investment horizon, corrections are an opportunity to gradually reduce and invest the often high cash holdings. Disciplined implementation of the chosen strategy is important in order to avoid timing errors and not be overly guided by emotions," added Raoul Schätzlealso Managing Partner at FPS.
In view of the drastic change in the current situation, many independent asset managers now expect the price of gold to continue to rise: 63% of survey participants currently expect this to happen, compared with just 50% three months ago (cf. graphic below).
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On the other hand, Bitcoin appears to have fallen massively out of favor with investors. In the survey, only 28% of EAMs expect prices to rise, compared to a whopping 74% at the start of 2025 (cf. graphic below).
The next AVI Index will be published at the beginning of July 2025.
Disclaimer: Produced by Investment Center Aquila Ltd. Information and opinions contained in this document are gathered and derived from sources which we believe to be reliable. However, we can offer no under-taking, representation or guarantee, either expressly or implicitly, as to the reliability, completeness or correctness of these sources and the information pro-vided. All information is provided without any guarantees and without any explicit or tacit warranties. Information and opinions contained in this document are for information purposes only and shall not be construed as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to acquire or dispose of any investment instrument or to engage in any other trans action. Interested investors are strongly advised to consult with their Investment Adviser prior to taking any investment decision on the basis of this document in order to discuss and take into account their investment goals, financial situation, individual needs and constraints, risk profile and other information. We accept no liability for the accuracy, correctness and completeness of the information and opinions provided. To the extent permitted by law, we exclude all liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages, including loss of profit, arising from the published information.
Independent asset managers in Switzerland can look back on a surprisingly good year on the stock market. They expect Donald Trump's policies to provide a major boost in 2025. However, they also see attractive investment opportunities in Switzerland - with relatively low risk.
The future of an independent asset manager depends not only on smart investment decisions, but also on well thought-out succession planning, writes Markus Angst in a guest article on finews.ch. Those who ignore this issue risk not only their own success, but also the trust of their clients. Read the full article at finews.ch.
Nicolas Peter looks back on a pleasing year: investors achieved impressive returns despite the weaker performance of the Swiss stock market. The US market in particular shone with a performance of 28%.
We remain optimistic for equities in 2025 - albeit with more volatility. The US market impresses with strong earnings growth, while the Swiss market scores with solid dividends. Gold remains an important portfolio component, supported by central bank purchases, falling interest rates and rising debt.
The Aquila Investments team is looking forward to an exciting new year!
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