The majority of independent asset managers in Switzerland regard the current bear market as a buying opportunity, as a recent survey by the Aquila Group shows. The experts see the greatest upside potential in gold - due to the geopolitical situation.
Around two-thirds of independent asset managers (63.0 percent) in Switzerland believe that the current correction on the financial markets is a buying opportunity. By contrast, 37.0 percent of the survey participants expect prices to fall further (see chart below).
The financial experts tend to expect weaker stock markets in the next three months; against the background of the war in Ukraine, the survey participants expect the price of gold to rise sharply by the middle of the year, exceeding the mark of 2,000 dollars per ounce.
Global recession?
This is clear from the Aquila Asset Manager Index (AVI) which is published every three months by the Swiss Aquila Group in cooperation with finews.ch. The index summarizes various forecasts and assessments of independent asset managers in Switzerland. 150 firms participated in the latest survey.
The latest survey also shows that 71.0 percent of independent asset managers do not expect a global recession; 40 percent of respondents see the price of a barrel of WTI (crude oil) at between $80 and $100 by the end of the year, while 34 percent expect it to be between $100 and $120 (see chart above).
Rare constellation
Overall, independent asset managers are rather undecided about the situation in the next three months. Although they do not expect the war in Ukraine to end, they do expect negotiations between the parties to the conflict, which in turn should lead to a certain easing of tensions. Based on these premises, 56 percent of the survey participants still expect stock market prices to rise by mid-year, compared with 67 percent at the beginning of the year (see chart below).
Currently, 20 percent (three months ago: 17 percent) of independent asset managers expect valuations to stagnate, while 24 percent (three months ago: 18 percent) of specialists expect prices to fall, according to the survey. Expectations for the EuroStoxx50 and the S&P500 also show a similar pattern. The current constellation with globally comparable expectations is rare, but reflects the geopolitical situation, which is largely dominated by the war in Ukraine.
Gold wins
Three months from now (see chart above), the independent asset managers see the Swiss Market Index (SMI) at 11,494 (current: 12,202); the troy ounce of gold at 2,019 dollars (current: 1,792); the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury at 2.09 percent (current: 2.39); and the euro-franc exchange rate at 1.0103 (current: 1.0303).
The next AVI index will be published in June 2022.
Contact: Nicolas Peter, Head Asset Management Phone: +41 58 680 60 42 Source: Finews AG, Zurich
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