Nicolas Peter looks back on a pleasing year: investors achieved impressive returns despite the weaker performance of the Swiss stock market. The US market in particular shone with a performance of 28%.
We remain optimistic for equities in 2025 - albeit with more volatility. The US market impresses with strong earnings growth, while the Swiss market scores with solid dividends. Gold remains an important portfolio component, supported by central bank purchases, falling interest rates and rising debt.
The Aquila Investments team is looking forward to an exciting new year!

#AquilaFocus #Aquila #Investments #Gold #ZPolicy #SMI #USMarket #Anvestment strategy #2025

President-elect Donald Trump can implement his policies without restriction with the support of both chambers, which can have an inflationary effect in extremis.
"America First" will have a positive impact on US growth. The international effects depend on the specific implementation of the measures, as well as the countermeasures - as the example of China shows.
Western central banks are expected to cut interest rates further by 2025 to support the economy, while the BOJ is likely to move further away from its zero interest rate policy.
Lower financing costs are also welcomed due to the high and rising national debt in some cases.
The bond markets have calmed down following the US presidential election. Investors are keeping a close eye on the development of government debt.
There was profit-taking on the US stock markets following the US election. In Europe, the markets have been under pressure since the end of September. We remain cautiously positive about further developments. Geopolitical risks and customs discussions could weigh on the stock markets.
The US dollar is trending firmer after the election, while the Swiss franc is showing relative strength, especially against the euro.
The long overdue technical correction in gold has taken place. We remain positive in our medium-term assessment.

Independent asset managers looking for a successor have several options available to them today. Many of them find themselves in this situation today. Vivien Jain examines the various scenarios and their advantages and disadvantages. Regardless of which scheme is chosen, the time factor plays a crucial role in the process. Read the full article here [...]

Independent asset managers in Switzerland are in good shape, but they agree that their numbers will decrease significantly over the next few years, as a recent survey shows. They do not yet have much to do with artificial intelligence. However, those who do use it are optimizing their investment strategy and obtaining better research material.

In the new environment shaped by FINIG/FIDLEG, the issue of succession has become crucial for many independent asset managers. In this interview, Carine Frick Delaloye examines the issue from a valuation perspective, with a focus on asset profitability. Read the full interview in German here.Voici l'intégralité de l'interview [...]

In the latest Aquila Focus, Nicolas Peter, Head of Investment & Wealth Management at Aquila AG, takes stock of the last few months and provides an outlook for the end of the year. The equity markets have been strong in recent quarters, while the bond market has also stabilized. The yellow metal once again played a key role: gold has recorded an impressive gain of over 20% since the beginning of the year, driven by geopolitical tensions, persistently high inflation and continued central bank purchases.
Looking ahead to the final weeks of the year, gold remains a key component in portfolios. The gold price could continue to benefit from the uncertainties surrounding the global economy and potential interest rate cuts. In particular, the upcoming US presidential elections and possible new monetary policy measures could lead to increased volatility on the markets. Despite these uncertainties, we are optimistic about the year-end spurt, but are proceeding with caution, as geopolitical risks and economic weaknesses could still challenge the markets.

#aquila focus #EAM 1TP5Investments 1TP5Equities #aquila #asset management 1TP5Gold 1TP5Review 1TP5Outlook 1TP5Central banks 1TP5Interest rate policy

The focus of asset managers is shifting. Where the focus used to be on looking after clients, regulatory requirements and administrative duties now dominate. In an interview with finews.ch, Aquila founder Max Cotting says that time for the actual core of the work, namely maintaining client relationships, is dwindling. Read the full interview here.

Central bank decisions have been the focus of investors' attention in recent days. The Fed surprised participants with a bold rate cut of 50 basis points. The far-reaching sweeping move by the PBOC was unexpected. The measures were positively received by the stock markets. The ECB and SNB also eased their monetary policy in line with expectations.
The global economy appears to be cooling down and is now also affecting the service sector to some extent. The figures remain contradictory.
The USA is surprising on the upside and monetary easing continues to allow for a soft landing.
In Europe, economic concerns are weighing heavier.
The global bond markets have calmed down. The Fed's interest rate cut is leading to a normalization of the yield curve.
On the stock markets, the significant swings "downwards" were corrected surprisingly quickly. However, this recovery was not equally strong everywhere.
The US dollar could remain under pressure. In addition to the expectation of further interest rate cuts, rising debt in the US is also weighing on the greenback.
Gold rises to over USD 2,700 per ounce and reaches a new all-time high.

According to Markus Angst, a good third of all independent asset managers still active today will be transferred in the next few years. The issue of transfer has therefore become a priority for them, which, due to its complexity, requires a rational approach as well as a certain sense of foresight. Read the full interview in German here.voici l'intégralité [...]

The digital transformation in wealth management is not just a question of technology. It is a question of "being fit" for the future. In her article for finews.first, Vivien Jain writes that it is a question of balancing tradition and modernity. Read the full article here.

Following Joe Biden's withdrawal, the election campaign was relaunched. Differences in gender, age and background between Harris and Trump promise an exciting race. The election platforms could hardly be more different. The outcome of the presidential race remains open. What are the implications for the capital markets?

In the latest Aquila Focus, Nicolas Peter, Head of Investment & Wealth Management at Aquila AG, looks at investor reaction to increased AI investment and the shift from large-cap to small-cap stocks. Despite strong gains in the first half of the year, the market is volatile and investors are critical of Google's increased AI spending. At the same time, US small caps are back in investors' focus.

#aquilafocus #EAM #aquilaag #investments #shares #aquila #google #KI #AI #assetmanagement