Independent asset managers in Switzerland are in good shape, but they agree that their numbers will decrease significantly over the next few years, as a recent survey shows. They do not yet have much to do with artificial intelligence. However, those who do use it are optimizing their investment strategy and obtaining better research material.

In the new environment shaped by FINIG/FIDLEG, the issue of succession has become crucial for many independent asset managers. In this interview, Carine Frick Delaloye examines the issue from a valuation perspective, with a focus on asset profitability. Read the full interview in German here.Voici l'intégralité de l'interview [...]

In the latest Aquila Focus, Nicolas Peter, Head of Investment & Wealth Management at Aquila AG, takes stock of the last few months and provides an outlook for the end of the year. The equity markets have been strong in recent quarters, while the bond market has also stabilized. The yellow metal once again played a key role: gold has recorded an impressive gain of over 20% since the beginning of the year, driven by geopolitical tensions, persistently high inflation and continued central bank purchases.
Looking ahead to the final weeks of the year, gold remains a key component in portfolios. The gold price could continue to benefit from the uncertainties surrounding the global economy and potential interest rate cuts. In particular, the upcoming US presidential elections and possible new monetary policy measures could lead to increased volatility on the markets. Despite these uncertainties, we are optimistic about the year-end spurt, but are proceeding with caution, as geopolitical risks and economic weaknesses could still challenge the markets.

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The focus of asset managers is shifting. Where the focus used to be on looking after clients, regulatory requirements and administrative duties now dominate. In an interview with finews.ch, Aquila founder Max Cotting says that time for the actual core of the work, namely maintaining client relationships, is dwindling. Read the full interview here.

Central bank decisions have been the focus of investors' attention in recent days. The Fed surprised participants with a bold rate cut of 50 basis points. The far-reaching sweeping move by the PBOC was unexpected. The measures were positively received by the stock markets. The ECB and SNB also eased their monetary policy in line with expectations.
The global economy appears to be cooling down and is now also affecting the service sector to some extent. The figures remain contradictory.
The USA is surprising on the upside and monetary easing continues to allow for a soft landing.
In Europe, economic concerns are weighing heavier.
The global bond markets have calmed down. The Fed's interest rate cut is leading to a normalization of the yield curve.
On the stock markets, the significant swings "downwards" were corrected surprisingly quickly. However, this recovery was not equally strong everywhere.
The US dollar could remain under pressure. In addition to the expectation of further interest rate cuts, rising debt in the US is also weighing on the greenback.
Gold rises to over USD 2,700 per ounce and reaches a new all-time high.

According to Markus Angst, a good third of all independent asset managers still active today will be transferred in the next few years. The issue of transfer has therefore become a priority for them, which, due to its complexity, requires a rational approach as well as a certain sense of foresight. Read the full interview in German here.voici l'intégralité [...]

The digital transformation in wealth management is not just a question of technology. It is a question of "being fit" for the future. In her article for finews.first, Vivien Jain writes that it is a question of balancing tradition and modernity. Read the full article here.

Following Joe Biden's withdrawal, the election campaign was relaunched. Differences in gender, age and background between Harris and Trump promise an exciting race. The election platforms could hardly be more different. The outcome of the presidential race remains open. What are the implications for the capital markets?

In the latest Aquila Focus, Nicolas Peter, Head of Investment & Wealth Management at Aquila AG, looks at investor reaction to increased AI investment and the shift from large-cap to small-cap stocks. Despite strong gains in the first half of the year, the market is volatile and investors are critical of Google's increased AI spending. At the same time, US small caps are back in investors' focus.

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A clear majority of independent asset managers believe that the disappearance of Credit Suisse will leave a vacuum in the Swiss banking sector. Visibility for the French financial market has improved after the second round of elections. Some asset managers are convinced that entry prices are now available.

Sometimes the usual options just don't fit. This was the case when one of our long-standing partners was looking for a succession solution. Neither a family-internal solution, collaboration with another independent asset manager, nor handing over to a bank seemed right to him.

Global growth was robust in the first quarter and the European economy is gaining momentum. The recovery is also likely to continue for the rest of the year - supported by the looser monetary policy, among other things.
We expect global economic growth of 3% for 2024.
The fall in inflation since the coronavirus pandemic is generally welcomed, but has not yet reached the target value of 2% in most regions.
Nevertheless, the first central banks are easing their monetary policy framework and providing growth impetus.
Central banks remain data-dependent in their decisions.
Yields on government bonds in the most important markets are moving sideways.
The stock markets in the most important regions are behaving heterogeneously: new highs in the USA, setbacks in Europe. We remain cautiously constructive for the equity markets.
The US dollar has consolidated its gains since the beginning of the year, while the Swiss franc weakened briefly following the SNB's renewed interest rate cut.
The price of gold is currently trading in a range of USD 2,300 to 2,400 per ounce, and we remain positive in our assessment.